Experts are signaling an improved retail performance is on the horizon for this holiday season. A new report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that winter holiday spending is expected to grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent above 2023 sales. This reflects a total holiday spending figure of between $979 billion and $989 billion in November and December, compared with $955 billion in 2023. 

“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay “The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”   

Shay noted that the holiday forecast is consistent with NRF’s forecast of an annual holiday sales increase for 2024 between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent as compared with 2023.

He said that online shopping is expected to be the primary contributor to overall retail sales growth this season. E-commerce sales and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 8 percent and 9 percent to approximately $295 billion and nearly $298 billion, compared with $273 billion in 2023. 

Last year, non-store sales increased by 10.7 percent compared with 2022 non-store sales. 

“We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Household finances are in good shape and are an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously.” 

The NRF predicts that companies will have to hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this year to keep pace with sales growth. This is down slightly from last year, when seasonal hires topped 509,000.

Several factors are contributing to the slightly lower sales figures this year, including a shorter shopping season between Thanksgiving and Christmas. This year, shoppers have five fewer days than in 2023 to get their shopping done. 

Additionally, the season is expected to feel the economic impacts of Hurricane Helene and Milton. The NRF noted that despite the 2024 U.S. presidential election occurring during the holiday season, they cannot predict how it will affect future spending.