NEW YORK—With so many uncertainties around the COVID-19 situation and how it will spread worldwide, the global advertising market is in a state of flux right now. As a result, the research firm eMarketer said it is taking a “cautious approach” and has updated its global ad-spending forecast.

In 2020, the firm now expects total media ad spending worldwide will reach $691.7 billion, up by 7.0 percent from 2019. But note that this is a decrease in projected growth from the firm’s previous forecast, which estimated worldwide ad spending growth in 2020 to rise by 7.4 percent to $712.02 billion.

“Our downward revision is primarily due to one country: China, the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak,” eMarketer said in its recent report on global advertising. “The first case was discovered there in late December 2019, so we have had more time to track the virus’s impact on the country’s ad market.” (China is the world’s second-largest ad market after the United States, so a reduction in our China estimates would lower our global forecast.)

The research firm said it now expects total media ad spending in China to reach $113.7 billion, down from the previous estimate of $121.13 billion.

eMarketer also noted that its forecast is for the full year, “and there is still a strong possibility that the virus could be contained in the coming months, allowing for a rebound in [the second half of 2020].” Ad spending takes place in the latter part of the year for the holiday season in most countries, the firm noted.

Another key factor in the advertising market this year is the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo. The eMarketer forecast assumes that the Olympics will still take place in June, and the firm expects this major event will provide “a boost in ad spending in the U.S. and worldwide.”

The eMarketer report added, “A sustained economic contraction could also cause us to revise our forecast later this year. While some major industries—such as travel and tourism—have already been hit hard, it’s too soon to tell how debilitating the impact will be on the global economy in the long-term.”

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